Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
